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The book publishing industry is notoriously tumultuous. It can be all too easy for an aspiring author to get caught up in the doom and gloom and bad news in the industry when they hear about publishing mergers or layoffs or bookstores closing. It might make it seem like you have an even further reduced chance of getting published.

But as we are getting into 2023, there are actually several reasons why I am quite optimistic about the book publishing landscape for the year. My intention is to give you a fresh perspective on everything that is going on in book publishing in 2023 and hopefully make you feel more encouraged about your options for getting your book on the shelves. This will be especially pertinent for authors who are considering pursuing the traditional publishing route and querying literary agents, because my background and expertise is in Big Five publishing.

Two Big Industry Issues Have Been Resolved

The first reason why I'm feeling optimistic about book publishing in 2023 is that two big industry issues have been resolved.

Penguin Random House and Simon & Schuster’s Merger Was Blocked

The first relates to the biggest publishing news in recent history, which is the proposed merger of Penguin Random House and Simon and Schuster. In short, these are two of the Big Five publishing houses, and the proposed merger would make the Big Five into the Big Four. Many authors and publishing industry professionals were very concerned about this merger, as Penguin Random House is already the largest publishing house in the US, and this merger with Simon & Schuster would make them an even larger corporation with even more market share over the book publishing industry. This could lead to a lack of competition in the market trickling down into lower payments for authors and less diversity in books being published.

This merger was so controversial, the Department of Justice launched a trial to block the merger to prevent Penguin Random House and Simon & Schuster from monopolizing the publishing industry. The merger was successfully blocked, to the relief of many people in the industry.

With this blocked merger, we're seeing the industry move against this trend towards conglomeration and consolidation, which has been happening over and over throughout the years. Clearly the Department of Justice and people across the industry see the value in having competition, and it may become more challenging for big publishers to buy out small presses with this precedent.

Now, all of this being said, it is true that Paramount–which is Simon & Schuster's parent company–is still trying to sell off Simon & Schuster, so we don't know who might buy it or if another publishing house might attempt to. We do need to still keep an eye on what happens, but overall, the news that the proposed merger was blocked was seen as positive by many in the industry.

The HarperCollins Union Negotiated a New Contract

The second big piece of news surrounds the HarperCollins union workers ratifying a new contract. HarperCollins is another one of the Big Five publishing houses, and they are unique as some of their employees are unionized, which is not common across the publishing industry. Their union represents over 250 employees across different departments, with a portion of members in entry-level positions.

The union went on strike at the tail end of last year for three whole months, picketing outside of the HarperCollins offices in New York City to demand higher pay, more commitment to diversity, and better working conditions not only for the union employees, but in the hopes of kickstarting a trend across the industry overall. This is because in the publishing industry, employees, especially lower level employees, are overworked and under underpaid.

The ratification of the new contract was an incredible accomplishment, because this new contract includes raises to the base salaries across HarperCollins, overtime protections, and two additional holidays and a volunteer day. It also guarantees that employees will be compensated for diversity and inclusion work, which is so critical in the publishing industry, as it is notoriously terrible with diversity.

We are already seeing the trickle effects of the union's work in the industry through other publishing houses raising their starting salaries. As a former Penguin Random House employee, this news resonates with me because I was in the position of having a very low salary in New York City, and I was working many, many more hours than I was actually being paid for. This makes me very optimistic about what the future of book publishing could look like because putting better books out there and supporting authors more starts with publishing house employees being able to do their jobs properly.

There Are Many Debut Author Book Deals

The next reason why I am optimistic about book publishing in 2023 is because I'm seeing many deal announcements for debut authors. One of the biggest concerns I hear from unpublished authors is that they are never going to get a book deal because they've never been published before, thinking that publishing houses will only publish authors who have an established track record.

This is simply not true and in 2023 already, we are seeing dozens of deals go to debut authors. I did a search on Publishers Marketplace, which is the industry database that posts all new deals made in the industry. They have a specific category for debut fiction, and for January and February of 2023, the number of deals for debut fiction was 53. This doesn't even encompass all of the deals that have been made this year, because the announcements on PublishersMarketplace tend to be quite delayed. There are definitely other deals either in the works or that have just been signed that are not reflected in that number. Plus, this number does not include non-fiction books, because there's not a specific debut section for non-fiction authors, so again, the number is actually even higher than I'm reporting.

These debut deals were going to authors across many diverse genres, including horror, poetry, historical fiction, short story collections, romance, and contemporary fiction. I was especially excited to see deals going to poets and to short story writers, because these are two genres that are not typically sought out in traditional publishing. Clearly, certain editors at publishing houses are interested in these genres, which is very exciting.

Also remember that the 53 deals does not encompass the debut authors who have signed with a literary agent but have not yet gone out on submission to publishing houses. Anecdotally, I'm seeing a number of announcements on Twitter where authors are saying that they have signed with a literary agent, and I'm seeing a lot of posts from literary agents commenting on the high quality of queries that they are receiving this year, so it does seem to be a fruitful time for debut authors.

Authors Have More Resources Than Ever

The final reason why I'm optimistic about book publishing in 2023 is because authors have more resources than ever. Publishing a book has long been an opaque and mysterious pursuit, but it no longer has to be so confusing. There are so many different outlets online for you to get free insights and guidance on how to publish your book, whether you are looking to self-publish or traditionally publish. The increased transparency about the industry is so encouraging for new authors!

Some of my favorite places to go for free publishing and writing advice would be the AuthorTube community. Alexa Donne is great for traditional publishing and my friend M.K. Williams is an excellent resource for self-publishing.

The BookTok community is also incredible and continues to grow and catch fire within the industry, as it is driving book sales. So if you have any inclination, definitely check it out. There are amazing content creators who are speaking about their own experiences very candidly with querying, signing with literary agents, publishing, and self-publishing. Some of my favorite BookTok-ers are Kelsie Gonzalez, Chelsie Prince, Diana Urban, and Farrah Penn.

There are many publishing professionals and authors writing newsletters on Substack, some of which are completely free. Some of my favorites are Before and After the Book Deal by Courtney Maum, Craft with Kat by Kat Lewis, and Agents and Books by literary agent Kate McKean.

There are also amazing podcasts about writing and publishing. One of the top is The Shit No One Tells You About Writing. And if you use Reddit, the subreddit r/PubTips is full of people providing advice, insights, and even free query critiques.

Of course, there are also tons of books that you can read about publishing and writing.

A Bit of Bad News

I do want to talk about some of the bad news we've gotten in the industry this year, because book publishing in 2023 is not all rainbows and roses.

One piece of news is that HarperCollins announced that it’s laying off 5% of its North American workforce. Layoffs have been occurring across multiple industries, and publishing is unfortunately not an exception.

Second is that the hugely influential literary magazine Catapult announced that it’s shuttering not only its magazine, but also its online classes to focus just on its book publishing division. This was a huge blow to the literary community, as Catapult was so highly regarded and was a home for so many writers, both in terms of workshops and classes and the literary magazine being a place for experimental works and great short stories.

Lastly, we are seeing more and more concerns about AI in the publishing industry. This is happening especially with literary magazines, some of which have reported that they're being completely inundated with AI-generated stories. This both floods their inboxes and makes it harder to tell what was created by a human author and what wasn’t.

There are concerns that this is going to trickle into the book publishing industry, and Amazon has already reported that a lot of AI-generated books have been posted on the Kindle platform. I'm even hearing whispers about people using AI to generate their query letters, so no matter where you stand on AI, it's clear that this is going to be a tricky topic for publishing to navigate in the months and years to come.

Regardless of all the bad news, I hope that some of my insights made you feel more optimistic about book publishing in 2023. I truly think there is room for your story to be told and I do not want you to give up or feel discouraged in your publishing journey.

Thanks so much for reading and happy writing!